Fall 2021 - A New Kind of Market
Fall and winter tend to be slower real estate markets in upstate New York. Despite the sense that nothing in the world will ever be quite the same, that is still true. The summer COVID boom is quieting down. The buyers are still out there but in fewer numbers. Sellers who haven’t sold yet are pulling their homes from the market for the winter. That is all familiar. But not much else is.
My region, the deep Catskills to the Mohawk Valley, saw a spike in activity that hasn’t been seen since 2001. Delhi and beyond used to be just too far for urban expats. Two and a half hours from the city was the consensus limit.
But that was before Kingston became the new love for young people priced out of Brooklyn. And as the Kingston market’s limitations became obvious, they branched out, discovering Saugerties, Olive, Kerhonkson, Phoenicia and Catskill. What came next was inevitable.
The Mid-Hudson Valley is now seeing the kind of hyper-inflation that forced people out of Brooklyn. Homes that sold for a couple of hundred thousand dollars just four or five years ago are now selling for two to three times that amount.
By spring of 2020, Delaware County wasn’t too far from the city any more. The prices were almost too good to be true. And many buyers weren’t even trying to get back to the city any more.
As they explored, they discovered Franklin, and just over the hill, the college town of Oneonta in Otsego County. And prices skyrocketed as they competed for the few properties available.
Even the obviously overpriced properties have sold, though their prices are negotiated down to something resembling market value by closing. There’s not much left as winter approaches.
Nationally, sales are down almost 20% compared to October last year, according to National Association of Realtors. Prices are up almost the same amount. And inventory is down by a third.
It’s a sellers’ market and that doesn’t seem likely to change.
This boom isn’t just about a health scare. Last year has made a cultural shift in our work lives, making it obvious to everyone that working from home works. People are realizing (or remembering) that their lives outside of work are important, too. And a combination of insecurity around our government and the world’s climate makes the ability to grow your own food, to own your own little piece of earth, seem like a very smart investment.
So if you’re a buyer, inventory is lean. If you find what you want, understand that you’re likely not the only buyer. If you’re a seller, you’re in control, so long as you don’t get greedy.
But I’ve been asked more than once what I think the spring market is going to be like. I think we’re in for another wild selling season, and I think towns which haven’t been reached yet, and are still reasonably priced, are about to be discovered.
Oneonta’s got a main street that’s every bit as architecturally charming as uptown Kingston, plus it’s got two colleges. We’re even getting a Starbucks and we have traffic jams on the main drag on weekends. Something’s happening.
Morris, Laurens, New Lisbon, Norwich, Sidney, Walton, Unadilla — they’re not on many people’s radar yet. I think 2022 is their year. And after that, the Mohawk Valley won’t be far behind. There are mill towns with beautiful old homes, handy to the Thruway, Albany, and points west. Their time is coming.
I’ll let you know if I was right when the summer arrives.