2021’s spring buying season has arrived in the Catskills. And it continues to be frenetic and overheated, just as it was through most of 2020.
I work in Delaware and Otsego Counties, mostly. They’re just to the west of Ulster and the Hudson Valley. And the wave of urban expats that engulfed the Hudson Valley has covered the Catskills and beyond, too.
Will it last? Anyone who tells you they know what’s next is just guessing. No one knows.
But here’s what’s happening now and here’s what I’m hearing from other Realtors and from my clients:
I’m hearing anecedotal evidence that mortgage rates are going up. And that’s inevitably going to contribute to an uptick in an already overheated market.
There is a limited inventory. Perhaps you’ve noticed real estate ads from agencies looking for listings. That’s every agency. We have more potential buyers than properties. This one sold in no time. And we knew it would.
I personally think the adorable dog had a lot to do with it.
We’re seeing a lot of people leading with their emotions and not their heads. The lack of inventory, and a lot of sleepless nights combing the Internet, are creating a sense of desperation.
I found out about a house that was not on the market yet in a town that’s popular with buyers. The agent let me preview it, and I sent video and photos to my buyer clients.
They fell in love, but before they could do anything about it, someone else put in a sight-unseen offer. Remember, this was a house NO ONE except the agents involved had seen.
Here’s the flip side of that coin. That sight-unseen offer fell through. The house is going to go on the market. And my buyers? They’re going to consider at least nine other houses. Once it became available, their interest cooled.
Sight unseen offers are not uncommon now. I have another property that is in contract to purchasers who didn’t see it until a few weeks after the inspection. They’re buying.
The lack of inventory is moving houses that didn’t move before. And anything under $100,000 (a price range that used to cover most of Delaware County but now only seems to applies to projects or properties with issues) draws a feeding frenzy. It doesn’t seem to matter what inspections discover — buyers know it’s this or another six months of looking. They’re grabbing what they’ve got.
Another trend? Sellers who don’t understand that a hot sellers’ market doesn’t mean an overpriced house will sell.
The overpriced houses are getting realistic offers. And if the sellers reject them, they sit. A gorgeous house I know of has dropped its price by $200,000. It’s almost in the realm of reality now.
The well priced houses are getting multiple offers, and sellers get to pick and choose the terms they prefer.
Sellers who understand how important pictures are, and who stage their homes to optimize the photos, get more traffic. A high price paired with unappealing pictures is guaranteed to underperform in a market where buyers pre-screen every house on the Internet.
I’ve seen articles claiming that the urban exodus is “over.” I’m also hearing from former Hudson Valley clients who are feeling like their upstate dream is becoming a suburban nightmare, and they’re talking about moving further into the country. And most of my buyer clients are still coming from downstate. So I don’t know how “over” anything is.
And then there are the anomalies. Like this place. It’s gorgeous. It’s historic. It’s got a beautiful yard and it’s in move-in shape. The only potential project I see is the kitchen, and that’s only if you want to either turn it into a gourmet workspace or restore it to something more vintage. It’s nothing urgent. But it hasn’t sold. Perhaps because it’s not country enough — it’s in Binghamton. But it’s a good location, it’s near schools and parks, and the house is best described as “gracious.” The price is right for everything that’s there. So why hasn’t it sold? I have to believe the right person hasn’t seen it. It’s just a matter of time.
I had the busiest year of my real estate career in 2020. And so far, 2021 is right on pace to match it, or maybe beat it.
Local contractors and tradespeople are backed up for months.
Most deals are moving more slowly than usual. Title searches are backed up. We already had a shortage of real estate attorneys, and the ones we have are swamped.
And more people are moving in than are moving out.
So far, I’m not seeing any signs of that changing.